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Poisson distribution is a method that works best for calculating statistics in sports where scoring is rare and happens in 🧲 increments of one. This is why it is most widely used in association football, and occasionally in hockey, but not 🧲 really utilised elsewhere – at least, not successfully.

That’s why, in this article, we’re going to focus on the former in 🧲 particular, and why much of what we’ll write will be applicable to football alone. With that said, let’s begin…

What Is 🧲 Poisson Distribution?

Poisson distribution is a method of calculating the most likely score in a sporting event such as football. Used 🧲 by many experienced gamblers to help shape their strategies, it relies on the calculation of attack and defence strength to 🧲 reach a final figure.

A mathematical concept, Poisson distribution works by converting mean averages into a probability. If we say, for 🧲 example, that the football club we’re looking at scores an average of 1.7 goals in each of their games, the 🧲 formula would give us the following probabilities:

The section below covers the most common bet types. But first, we’ll have to address the fact that bookmakers can 🍋 be somewhat inconsistent in naming bet types. It’s quite frustrating when you’re about to place a bet, to not even 🍋 find the correct bet type on the bookmaker website. But the bet type might just be presented with a different 🍋 name than what you are looking for. This is because some bet types are referred to differently in different parts 🍋 of the world. For a sports betting beginner, this can be rather confusing. But with a little practice, you’ll soon 🍋 learn how each bookmaker presents their odds. Read more about the different bet types in the Ultimate Guide to Sure 🍋 Betting.

Win / Moneyline / Draw No Bet

Also known as straight bet, DNB or 2-way bet.

One of the most popular bet 🍋 types and is offered in various sports. This market simply means betting on a specific team to win a game, 🍋 match or other event. The term “win” is used almost everywhere, while “moneyline” is mostly used in the United States 🍋 and a few other regions. The term “straight bet” can also be used for this type of wager. Draw No 🍋 Bet In the case of three possible outcomes, as in soccer, a draw results in your stake being returned. Hence 🍋 the name “draw no bet”. Additionally, an Asian handicap of 0 (AH0) is the same as Draw No Bet, as 🍋 it also eliminates the option of a draw.

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