This variance calculator and simulator for poker is handy and easy to use. Just enter
your winrate, standard deviation and 📈 the number of hands to simulate. You’ll most
certainly get insightful results. Read below how to use this simulator.
Enter Game
📈 Parameters Winrate in BB / 100 Observed winrate in BB / 100 (optional) Standard
deviation Examples for standard deviations NLH 📈 full ring: 60-80 BB/100 NLH 6-max:
75-120 BB/100 PLO full ring: 100-140 BB/100 PLO 6-max: 120-160 BB/100 stat can be 📈 found
in PokerTracker or HEM Number of hands Calculate 20 samples and confidence intervals
Hit "Calculate"! EV, confidence intervals and 📈 samples in BB, Best / Worst: Best and
worst run out of 1000 trials EV, confidence intervals and samples in 📈 BB, Best / Worst:
Best and worst run out of 1000 trials Variance in numbers Detailed sample with
downswings Hands: 📈 1.0 Million hands Winnings in BB on right axis, current downswing in
BB on left axis. Depending on the number 📈 of hands displayed, the extent and number of
downswings may be underrepresented due to the resolution of the graph. Winnings 📈 in BB
on right axis, current downswing in BB on left axis. Depending on the number of hands
displayed, the 📈 extent and number of downswings may be underrepresented due to the
resolution of the graph. Downswings in numbers
How to use 📈 my Poker Variance
Calculator?
This section will explain how the calculator works and what the numbers and
charts mean.
Enter the data 📈 Settings Hop over to the Variance Calculator page and enter
your win rate, standard deviation, and the number of hands 📈 you want to simulate. You
can ignore the field observed win rate, we’ll get to its purpose later. Once you 📈 have
entered the data, hit Calculate and let the Calculator do its magic.
Twenty samples
Variance Calculator Samples The first thing 📈 the Variance Calculator does is to run 20
samples over the number of hands, win rate and standard deviation specified. 📈 It’ll also
calculate the expected winnings over the number of hands. This number will appear as a
rather boring straight 📈 and black line in the graph. Thirdly the calculator displays the
70% and 95% confidence intervals as light and dark 📈 green curves. What you need to know
about them is that at any given time your winnings will be within 📈 these intervals with
a probability of 70% and 95% respectively. They basically show, how much variance you
should expect to 📈 see.
Variance in numbers
Below the first chart, the Variance
Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information:
EV : win rate entered
📈 above
: win rate entered above Standard deviation : standard deviation entered above
:
standard deviation entered above Hands : number of 📈 hands entered above
: number of
hands entered above Expected winnings : estimated winnings over the simulated amount of
hands
: estimated 📈 winnings over the simulated amount of hands Standard deviation after
X hands : This number shows how much your actual 📈 results will differ from the expected
results on average. The first number shows the absolute value and the second translates
📈 this number into BB/100, showing the impact on your win rate.
: This number shows how
much your actual results will 📈 differ from the expected results on average. The first
number shows the absolute value and the second translates this number 📈 into BB/100,
showing the impact on your win rate. 70% confidence interval : Your actual results over
the simulated amount 📈 of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first
interval shows absolute numbers and the second 📈 translates those into BB/100, showing
the 70% confidence interval for your win rate.
: Your actual results over the simulated
amount 📈 of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first interval shows
absolute numbers and the second 📈 translates those into BB/100, showing the 70%
confidence interval for your win rate. 95% confidence interval : Same as the 📈 above with
95% certainty. Meaning: 19 out of 20 times your actual winnings will be within this
interval.
: Same as 📈 the above with 95% certainty. Meaning: 19 out of 20 times your
actual winnings will be within this interval. Probability 📈 of loss after X hands : the
probability that you will experience negative winnings (meaning: losses) over the
number of 📈 hands.
: the probability that you will experience negative winnings (meaning:
losses) over the number of hands. Probability of running at 📈 or above observed win rate
… : If you entered an observed win rate, this number will show you the 📈 probability that
you will experience a run at or above this win rate over the number of hands.
: If you
📈 entered an observed win rate, this number will show you the probability that you will
experience a run at or 📈 above this win rate over the number of hands. Probability of
running below observed win rate … : Same as 📈 above – the probability that you will
experience a run below the observed win rate over the number of hands.
: 📈 Same as above
– the probability that you will experience a run below the observed win rate over the
number 📈 of hands. Minimum bankroll for less than 5% risk of ruin: the bankroll needed to
have a risk of ruin 📈 of less than 5%
Detailed sample with downswing
Variance Calculator
Downswing Samples
This chart simulates a single run over 100 thousand up to 📈 10 million
hands with the win rate and standard deviation entered above. You can choose how many
hands to simulate 📈 by moving the slider.
Apart from showing a single sample, this graph
also shows some insightful information about downswings. The red 📈 area shows for any
given point, how much the sample is currently away from its previous peak, meaning it
tracks 📈 downswings. This chart uses two vertical axes. While the sample winnings have
their scale on the right axis, the downswing 📈 tracker has its scale on the left axis. In
this example, the simulated player ended up with winnings over 25,000 📈 big blinds after
2.5 million hands but had to deal with a nasty downswing of almost 10,000 big blinds
between 📈 hand 1.2 million and hand 2 million.
Downswings in numbers
The last section of
the Variance Calculator sheds some more light on 📈 potential downswings. Therefore 100
million hands are simulated and all downswings over this simulation are tracked. The
first table shows 📈 the extent of the downswings. It shows how often the simulated player
was stuck in a downswing of at least 📈 X big blinds. For example (1000+ BB – 31.77%)
means the player was in the middle of a downswing of 📈 at least 1,000 big blinds 31.77
percent of the time.
The second table shows how long downswings last on average. For
📈 example (50000+ Hands – 15.81%) means the simulated player was in a downswing over at
least 50,000 hands 15.81 percent 📈 of the time. For the purpose of these calculations, a
downswing is defined as any period where the current total 📈 winnings are below the
maximum previous total winnings. Meaning, that by this definition a downswing is not
over until the 📈 player has fully recovered his losses.
In general, these simulations
underestimate the extent of downswings, but the numbers should still give 📈 you a decent
idea of the vastness of downswings you should expect.
Should you have any questions,
encounter any errors or 📈 have ideas for improvements, please let me know.
» Tournament
Variance Calculator
» Examples and Impacts of Variance in Cash Games
» ICM 📈 Calculator
»
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