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Traders are betting on further increases in the price of gold after it touched a 12-month high this week, as 💲 investors predict the US Federal Reserve’s cycle of interest rate rises is over and seek safe havens during banking sector 💲 turmoil.

Spot prices for gold this week touchedR$2,000 per ounce for the first time since the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion 💲 of Ukraine. Prices slipped back after testing the level several times throughout the week, but trading in options contracts linked 💲 to the metal suggest many investors are expecting a more sustained rally in the weeks ahead.

Financial investors generally make bets 💲 on gold prices through futures contracts, exchange traded funds, or options contracts tied to them. Aakash Doshi, head of commodities 💲 for North America at Citigroup, said there had been a surge in investor activity across all three channels in recent 💲 weeks.

“The big catalyst has been the stress in the regional banking system in the US . . . [and] it 💲 has been pretty much one-directional buying,” he said.

March is set to be the first month of net inflows into gold 💲 ETFs for 10 months, while the volume of bullish options bets tied to the funds has approached record levels.

Call options 💲 give investors the right to buy assets at a set price at a later date. The five-day rolling volume of 💲 call options on the SPDR Gold Trust ETF has surged more than fivefold since the start of the month. The 💲 ratio of calls to puts — options that are used to make bearish bets or protect against downside risk — 💲 has also swung to extreme levels, suggesting a consensus among traders that prices are on the way up.

There was a 💲 similar increase in interest in CME’s gold futures and options tied to them, including deep “out of the money” options, 💲 which would only pay out if the gold price hits new all-time highs.

The banking crisis that began earlier this month 💲 with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank created both short- and longer-term catalysts for an increase.

Suki Cooper, 💲 precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered, said in the days immediately following the collapse of SVB and Signature there was 💲 a massive increase in “tactical” positioning as traders looked for assets considered safe havens in times of crisis.

In previous crises, 💲 this impact has been offset by other investors being forced to sell gold to meet margin calls on other investments. 💲 However, Cooper said months of investor outflows meant positioning was light at the start of the latest problems, reducing the 💲 amount of further selling.

At the same time, the bank crisis has led investors to reassess the outlook for interest rates 💲 in the US. Rising rates over the past year had reduced the attractiveness of yield-free gold investments, but investors have 💲 become increasingly convinced that the Fed’s latest rate hike earlier this week will be its last.

“If we’re at the end 💲 of a rate hiking cycle, there’s much more scope for upside,” Cooper said.

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