Yes cool, a favorite project of mine too for a year now from time to time . It offers
nice ⚾️ insight.
Also notice you need to consider antes as this makes it even more
interesting and realistic.
You also need to use ⚾️ ICM to see if this is right though for
some of the totally trashy hands in the bottom 10-20%. Clearly ⚾️ when you shove with
stupid hands like 23 or 74 or even T2 you have near 26% equity when called ⚾️ . And you
will be called 13% of the time from 10% ranges for example due to the removal effect
⚾️ from others having folded to the blinds (more aces left on the deck and good Kings to a
serious degree ⚾️ actually) . Anyway you will indeed have a net plus EV result in chips
but if your stack is 20bb ⚾️ when you do such things and you are a very good player you
actually are risking 14bb to win something ⚾️ like 0.6-0.7bb on that move on avg. Now that
is significant but so is using your 14bb on a QQ ⚾️ or KK or AA or AK a few hands later
when there is potential dead money at the pot for ⚾️ much higher benefit per risk taken
and also all the other lucrative situations a good player can spot better (and ⚾️ which
are no longer lucrativeif the table thinks you are a stealing bully) . Here say 10% of
the time ⚾️ you lose 14bb (13% times 74%) . Notice that due to the nonlinearity of the
tournament equity function it matters ⚾️ when you take big risks that can crash your
equity in order to only slightly improve it the rest 90% ⚾️ of the time.
Maybe a big raise
say 4-5bb is as effective vs a 14bb stack since he needs to go ⚾️ all in really , he cant
just call you and if he does go all in and you can imagine ⚾️ he is still on some 10-20%
range these trashy hands are still around 28-30% equity. If he indeed goes all ⚾️ in with
10-15% of hands then (why would that be any radical difference further from the range
he calls full ⚾️ all ins?) you might be able to fold and save 10bb since
10/(14+14+0.75)=35% and you really dont have that with ⚾️ trashy hands against even a full
20% range. In fact probably a great deal as much as 35% of the ⚾️ bottom hands are folded
easily in this case. That probably will elevate the EV of the "stealing" move. Plus he
⚾️ may even on occasion just call and you can hit some of these flops with a 5-6% miracle
or even ⚾️ just a top pair . Its hard to imagine why one would flat call with over 30% of
their stack ⚾️ (unless on AA,KK etc trapping which is also debatable if its good idea) but
some strange people do it.
Plus clearly ⚾️ you will be doing all kinds of better things
with your top hands anyway. If one can indeed refine the ⚾️ action with the junky hands
and have it ICM approved then its probably right to be that audacious.
But i still
⚾️ reserve some hesitation on such moves that are very bold in tourneys that you hold some
reasonable edge in skill ⚾️ over the majority of the players left which in itself gives
you a much higher tournament equity function and much ⚾️ more serious bias against moves
that can potentially devastate you. My point is one shouldnt be making it that easy ⚾️ for
others possibly of inferior skill to inflict a massive blow to his/her stack. Imagine
if the guy is some ⚾️ pissed off crazy idiot that thinks you are bullying him -and you do
in fact- (and he likes coin flips ⚾️ in his mind) and he calls you with 30% of his hands.
Those low end trashy hands will still be ⚾️ only near 30 to 32% vs this wider range. It
will be coming 35-40% too due to the levated AX,KX ⚾️ premium hands (removal effect
mentioned earlier). So it will then be more
like
(0.32*(14*2+0.75)=4.8)
0.65*1.75-0.35*4.8=-0.54bb almost the same as folding the
sb.
That ⚾️ big size raising option may be in fact a better alternative. In the minds of
some intelligent players it may ⚾️ even sound more threatening than the all in is for
clearly the guy is thinking why would you be doing ⚾️ all in with AA,KK,QQ etc and risk no
action.
