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A term you’ll hear a lot when talking about poker odds and expected value is “equity.”

Let’s take a closer 💶 look at what that is.

WHAT IS EQUITY?

Equity is the percentage of

the pot that is “yours” based on the likelihood 💶 of you winning the hand. The term is

often used interchangeably with the likelihood of winning, so if someone says 💶 they have

20% equity in the pot, it means they have a 20% chance of winning the hand.

There are

three 💶 possible ways of calculating equity: hand vs hand, hand vs range, and range vs

range. Working out equity for one 💶 hand against another is easy, but we often don’t have

the luxury of knowing what our opponent has, so we 💶 need to look at equity in terms of

hand vs range.

To do this, we compare our hand to all the 💶 hands in our opponent’s range

to calculate our total equity. Followers of poker legend Phil Galfond may be familiar

with 💶 this concept, as it’s the basis for his “GBucks” theory.

This theory advances the

concept of Sklansky dollars and applies it 💶 to a range vs hand scenario. It’s quite

complicated, so I’ll do my best to cut it down to bullet 💶 points.

Take the equity of

your hand against each part of your opponent’s range.

Multiply your equity by the

number of hand 💶 combos in each part of your opponent’s range.

Add up the total of the

results from each section.

Divide by the number 💶 of total hand combos in your opponent’s

range.

This will give you the average amount of equity your hand has against 💶 your

opponent’s range.

Given how complicated this is at the table and the fact that most

casinos won’t provide you with 💶 a pen and paper or wait the half an hour it would take

to work it out, most people don’t 💶 use this at the tables. Instead, they use a rough

version where you try to work out equity against different 💶 parts of their opponent’s

range and average them together. But, of course, even that takes time if you’re not

used 💶 to it!

HOW TO CALCULATE YOUR EV

While we can use pot odds to work out whether or

not a call will 💶 be profitable, we can’t use it to put an exact number on how profitable

or unprofitable it will be. If 💶 we want to do this, we need to calculate the expected

value of a decision (EV), which is the average 💶 result of our play if we were to repeat

it hundreds or thousands of times.

This is the equation for working 💶 out your expected

value:

EV = (Win % *R$ Won) – (Lose % *R$ Lost)

Simply put, if the EV is a 💶 positive

number, you’re making a profitable play, and if it’s a negative number, you’re making a

losing play.

For example, we 💶 have a flush draw on the turn, and our opponent has

betR$10 into aR$50 pot. The pot odds calculation says 💶 we need 16.66% equity to call,

and we know from the poker outs calculation that we will make our flush 💶 18% of the

time, but exactly how profitable is our play?

EV = (18% *R$60) – (82% *R$10)

EV =

($10.80) – 💶 ($8.20) =R$2.60

We can see that the expected value of ourR$10 call on the

turn isR$2.60, and we confirm that our 💶 call is profitable.

THE FOUR AND TWO RULE

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