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As tournament players, perhaps we sometimes feel pressured to make a move earlier in a poker tournament than we’d ideally 8️⃣ like to. Maybe the situation is not perfect, but we’ve noticed the blinds-levels appear to be going up rapidly. Unless 8️⃣ we take the current opportunity, we could easily end up becoming hopelessly short-stacked.

If we had the luxury of never needing 8️⃣ to worry about running out of chips, perhaps we would have passed up on the marginal opportunity that faces us 8️⃣ in favour of a much stronger situation.

Unfortunately, this is not how tournament poker works. We can’t go around playing individual 8️⃣ hands in isolation. We have to seriously consider something that isn't a factor for cash game players - our tournament 8️⃣ life.

The best decision at a tournament table is always going to take into account the effective stacks and the blind-levels. 8️⃣ We are interested in how “healthy” our stack is relative to the blinds, which will help to dictate our strategy. 8️⃣ If only there was a formula we could use to help us calculate this...

Actually, there is – it’s commonly referred 8️⃣ to as “M-ratio” or just “M” for short.

Table of Contents

M Ratio – The Calculation

The idea behind “M” is that it 8️⃣ tells us how many rounds we will last given our current stack size and the size of the blinds/antes.

So let’s 8️⃣ see if we can calculate our M for a simple tournament situation.

Question – We haveR$1,000 in our stack. The SB 8️⃣ isR$10, the BB isR$20, and the antes areR$1 and we are playing 10-handed. What is our M?

We simply need to 8️⃣ add the relevant values to the formula. “Antes” stands for total antes that are played in a round and would, 8️⃣ therefore, be calculated as:

Ante-price * number of players

We are interested in the amount we pay for antes in the entire 8️⃣ orbit, rather than just the value of an individual ante. So in this case, if the value of an individual 8️⃣ ante isR$1 and we have to pay it ten times per orbit, we will pay a total ofR$10 in antes 8️⃣ each orbit.

M =R$1000 / ($10 +R$20 +R$10)

M =R$1000 /R$40

M = 25

An M of 25 essentially means that we can last 8️⃣ another 25 orbits, assuming the structure of the hands remains the same. Which of course, it won’t, because soon the 8️⃣ next blind level will arrive and our M will become considerably reduced. So having an M of 25 in a 8️⃣ regular tournament is not the same as having an M of 25 in an ultra-turbo tournament. The blind structure must 8️⃣ be taken into consideration.

Using M Value to Make Decisions

We now have calculated our value for M, but on its own, 8️⃣ it’s not going to be especially useful. How can we use our value for M to help us define our 8️⃣ strategy in a tournament setting?

In his book Harrington on Hold'em, Dan Harrington provided some rough guidelines for how we should 8️⃣ evaluate and use our value for M. He defined several zones in which the value of M may fall, and 8️⃣ described what our resulting strategic outlook should be.

M is greater than 20 – The Green Zone – With an M 8️⃣ larger than 20 we typically have the luxury to choose whichever style we prefer, whether that be a conservative or 8️⃣ aggressive style. We have enough time to be patient and wait for strong holdings, but we also have the freedom 8️⃣ to dabble with more speculative hands and play aggressively. Taking some losses is not a huge problem at this stage, 8️⃣ and the effective stacks are still deep enough that we can get away with expanding our range in some scenarios.

M 8️⃣ is 10-20 – The Yellow Zone – Now we are starting to feel the time pressure a little bit. We 8️⃣ must start looking for spots to get involved and play hands. Some of the more speculative poker hands we may 8️⃣ have been able to play while in the green zone may now suffer from reduced playability. This reduction is a 8️⃣ result of the smaller effective stacks.

M is 6-10 – The Orange Zone – The pressure tightens here, and we want 8️⃣ to avoid wasting any chips. Cold-calling starts to become risky. Our main focus should be trying to be the first 8️⃣ player involved in the pot, wherever possible. If we are the ones open-raising, we have increased expectation as a result 8️⃣ of additional fold-equity. This is valuable here since every chip counts.

M is 1-6 – The Red Zone – We have 8️⃣ now reached what is known as the push/fold stages of tournament poker. We only have two options at this stage: 8️⃣ Move all-in or fold.

M is less than 1 – Dead Zone – We should avoid this particular zone at all 8️⃣ costs. Nearly everything is dependent on luck at this stage. We want our tournament career to be about skill, not 8️⃣ luck. We should look for a spot where we are first to act and shove all-in, hoping to get lucky. 8️⃣ Players have gone on to win big tournaments even after arriving at the dead-zone, so not all hope is lost. 8️⃣ In most cases, though, our tournament life is over.

Adjustment for Shorthanded Tables

The M calculation works for tables of all sizes. 8️⃣ The number of orbits we have left, won’t change hugely based on the number of players at the table. It 8️⃣ will change slightly, since we will pay a different amount of antes, meaning we will have slightly more orbits remaining 8️⃣ assuming the tables get shorthanded. (Usually the tables will get shorthanded only when approaching the final table. For the most 8️⃣ part, we will be playing tournaments with max capacity).

But is having an M of 5 on a 5-handed table the 8️⃣ same as having an M of 5 on a 10-handed table? Not really. Although the remaining number of orbits won’t 8️⃣ change that much, we will have twice as many opportunities to play hands on the 10-handed table.

To help us deal 8️⃣ with this, we can make use of what is known as effective M, which takes into account the need to 8️⃣ make faster decisions when the tables become shorthanded. We can refer to the standard value of the M calculation as 8️⃣ simple M.

The relationship between the two is as follows:

Essentially, we are taking a percentage of Simple M based on how 8️⃣ “full” the table is, assuming that a full table contains 10 players. So if a player has a simple M 8️⃣ of 10 on a 5-handed table, then he has an effective M of 5.

Let’s try a question to put everything 8️⃣ together.

Question – Effective stacks areR$1,000. Blinds areR$20/40 with antes ofR$2. We are 5 handed. Calculate simple M and effective M.

Okay, 8️⃣ hopefully, you should be able to do this on your own. The calculation is below:

Simple M

$1000 / ($20 +R$40 + 8️⃣ ($2 * 5))

$1000 / ($20 +R$40 +R$10)

$1000/R$70

Simple M = 14.3

Effective M

14.3 * (5/10)

14.3 * 0.5

Effective M = 7.15

So the next 8️⃣ time we are at the poker tables, let’s try to be aware of our M-ratio. Use it to help define 8️⃣ the strategy we will be using at any given stage of the tournament.

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