Luck vs Skill: What Makes a Winning Bet
Editor
Every bettor hopes that Lady Luck will be on their side, but a 1️⃣ profitable day at the office requires more than good fortune.
Luck can’t be ignored completely but to win at sports betting, 1️⃣ skill and an understanding of probability is essential.
This guide examines the roles that luck and skill both play in a 1️⃣ winning bet.
The Role of Luck
If sports were predictable, no one would watch them. There’s nothing exciting about watching the team 1️⃣ with the statistical advantage win every time.
The appeal of sport is that anything could happen, whether it’s the underdog lifting 1️⃣ the FA Cup or the unseeded wildcard picking up the Australian Open.
This unpredictability is the enemy of the sports bettor 1️⃣ because it means no matter how carefully statistics and probability are studied, there’s always the chance of a blow-out.
A hefty 1️⃣ dose of luck - good or bad - can influence any bet. However, solely relying on luck will statistically result 1️⃣ in losses.
There is a way of minimising the impact of luck, and that’s by avoiding sports where luck plays a 1️⃣ disproportionately large role. Sports where there are a lot of variables tend to be more affected by luck.
For example, luck 1️⃣ may affect the outcome of a golf tournament more frequently than a tennis match. Tennis is played in a more 1️⃣ sheltered environment, on a constant surface and with only two possible winners. Golf tournaments have a field of 90+ participants, 1️⃣ the surface is variable, and it’s very exposed to changes in the weather. In addition, one poor hole can destroy 1️⃣ the chances of winning the whole round, whereas in tennis it’s possible to recover from one lost rally because it’s 1️⃣ only a single point.
The Role of Probability
Probability is all about statistical analysis. This means analysing the data objectively to identify 1️⃣ the probability of both a win, and a loss. This is where some bettors fail; it’s not enough to simply 1️⃣ look at the probability of winning, the probability of losing matters too.
However, there are different types of probability: true probability 1️⃣ and implied probability.
The odds quoted by bookmakers make it possible to calculate implied probability. The table below shows some simple 1️⃣ odds and the equivalent implied probability:
Fractional odds Decimal odds Implied Probability 1/1 (evens) 2.0 50% 2/1 3.0 33.3% 3/1 4.0 1️⃣ 25% 4/1 5.0 20% 5/1 6.0 16.7% 6/1 7.0 14.3% 7/1 8.0 12.5% 8/1 9.0 11.1% 9/1 10.0 10% 10/1 1️⃣ 11.0 9.1% 1/2 1.5 66.7% 1/3 1.33 75% 1/4 1.25 80% 1/5 1.2 83.3%
Every set of odds can be converted 1️⃣ into an implied probability. This reflects what the bookmaker thinks is the probability of happening, with a house margin built 1️⃣ in.
For example, odds of 2/1 have an implied probability. This means that in every three events, two are expected to 1️⃣ result in a loss and one in a win. But does this really reflect the true situation?
The implied probability is 1️⃣ different to the true probability, because of the house margin for the bookmaker.
Bettors can compare the implied probability to the 1️⃣ true probability. Doing this allows bets which offer good value to be found at a variety of bookmakers.
For example, if 1️⃣ the true probability of a team with 2/1 odds and 33% implied probability was closer to a 50% chance of 1️⃣ winning, this bet could offer value.
Knowledge of the Sport
Anyone who understands probability, analysis and statistics could make a decent attempt 1️⃣ at placing a sports bet. Taking this very technical approach could prove to be successful, but for the very best 1️⃣ chance of winning, it’s better to have expert knowledge of the sport.
There are multiple factors which could influence the outcome, 1️⃣ and they can’t all be checked by simple probability.
Bookmakers use sophisticated systems of probability which take into account measurable factors. 1️⃣ This could include:
Head-to-head results
Recent form
Injuries
Weather
Home advantage
In a fast-moving market, odds have to be produced quickly and accurately, and calculations rely 1️⃣ on algorithms and programs.
Bettors with expert knowledge of a particular sport, a player, or a team can gain a small 1️⃣ advantage over the bookmaker. This is because there are some factors which aren’t quantifiable; bettors can use this expert knowledge 1️⃣ to interrogate the implied probability and try to find value bets.
Summing Up: Luck or Skill?
Luck will always play some part 1️⃣ in sports betting but the role of knowledge and skill is far greater. Using skill, experience and knowledge to get 1️⃣ the most out of available statistics can offer huge potential that eclipses simple good fortune.
