What is pass in betting?
The word “pass” (or passability) has several meanings when it comes to sports betting. Let's consider 🍏 all of them, along the way we will discuss a few more important aspects of betting. Ready? Then let's get 🍏 started.
Meanings of the term "passage" and its variations
What is a bet pass?
In the broadest sense, this means the fact that 🍏 the bettor's bet has won, that is, passed. For example, a player bets on TB (2.5) goals in football. After 🍏 the third goal, without waiting for the end of the match, the bookmaker fixes the passage of the bet and 🍏 calculates the payout on it.
To pass the bet on the winner of the match, you will have to wait until 🍏 the end of the game. If the player has correctly identified the winning team of the match, then this is 🍏 a pass, that is, his bet has passed. A Long Term Tournament Winner Bet will pass when the selected athlete 🍏 (or team) wins the title in a particular competition.
The probability of passing the bet
In the betting world, you can often 🍏 hear the persistent phrase “probability of passing the bet”. In general, this is a rather ephemeral concept, because in sports 🍏 there are a lot of factors that affect the probability of an outcome, and no one knows the exact probabilities. 🍏 The bookmaker may have one opinion, the professional player may have the opposite, and Uncle Vasya from the next doorway 🍏 may have a third opinion.
The probability of any outcome, according to the bookmaker, is determined by the odds on this 🍏 outcome. If you divide a hundred by a coefficient, you get an approximate estimate of the probability as a percentage.
For 🍏 example, here the bookmaker estimates the probability of Anderson's victory at about 35% (100 / 2.85), and Schwartzman's - about 🍏 70% (100 / 1.43). "Extra" 5% was formed due to the margin in this market.
But each bettor may have his 🍏 own personal opinion regarding this event, which allows players to earn on inflated odds. For example, if a player estimates 🍏 the probability of Anderson's victory at 45-50%, then it will be profitable for him to bet on the victory of 🍏 the South African. This is the essence of value-betting.
Other possible meanings of the word "pass"
Team Pass Bet
The next meaning of 🍏 the word “pass” is such a rate. For individual bookmakers, it may be designated “To Qualify” or “Pass selection”.
It means 🍏 that the team (or athlete) must advance to the next round of the tournament. Such bets are very common in 🍏 football, especially in tournaments with two-match rounds. In particular, in the Champions League playoffs, before each round, a bet is 🍏 offered on the team's passage to the next stage on the aggregate of two matches.
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Example: Champions League 1/8 finals two-legged 🍏 match between Barcelona and Ajax. The Spaniards won the first match at home 3: 0. Even if Ajax can win 🍏 the return game with a score of 1: 0, 2: 0, 2: 1 or 3: 1, they will not advance 🍏 to the next round. Therefore, the bookmakers will give different outcomes for their victory in the match and for the 🍏 passage to the next round of the competition. The odds for their passage to the quarterfinals will be much higher 🍏 than for winning a particular game.
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A similar bet can be found in the playoffs of major international tournaments, where a 🍏 draw is excluded (when extra time and penalty shootouts are assigned in case of a draw, if required). For example, 🍏 at the European Football Championship 2024 (2024), in each playoff match, it was possible to put on the passage of 🍏 each national team to the next round based on the results of extra time and a penalty shootout. You can 🍏 find such bets in the NBA, MLB and NHL playoffs, where rounds are played in a series of matches up 🍏 to four wins.
Another meaning of the phrase “pass rate” is, in fact, the passage of a team to a certain 🍏 round of competition in the long-term sense. For example, going to the 1/8 finals, the semi-finals or the final of 🍏 a certain tournament, when it has not even started yet. You can almost always bet on this too. Bookmakers offer 🍏 such bets with wordings like “Advance to the final” or “Advance to the quarter of the final”. To pass such 🍏 a bet, it is necessary that the selected athlete (or team) eventually go to the selected round of the competition.
What 🍏 is passability in bets?
Let us examine one more word that has one root with the word passage - passability. As 🍏 a rule, they denote the percentage of bets that the bettor wins at a distance. A value of 50% passability 🍏 means that the bettor has half of all his bets on the course. But many unscrupulous cappers manipulate this indicator, 🍏 indicating only this very percentage of passage or percentage of passability.
Some overestimate this indicator at times, indicating fabulous figures like 🍏 80-99%, while the TOP world level on an equal line is about 60%. But here the problem is also that 🍏 the percentage of the passage itself does not carry any information at all. You can have a pass rate of 🍏 75% and be in the red in terms of money. And you can have an excellent profit even with the 🍏 passage of only 15% of the bets.
Don't believe me? Let's count:
Capper A is betting on the victories of the big 🍏 favorites in football and tennis. The average odds that he plays are around 1.25. Yes, he has 75% of the 🍏 bets passability, and out of 1000 of his last bets, 750 have passed. Let's say he makes bets of 1000 🍏 rubles per match. Its turnover for 1000 bets amounted to 1,000,000 rubles, and payments were only 937,500 rubles. In total, 🍏 he is in the red in terms of money at a distance of 62,500 rubles (750x1000x1.25 - 1,000,000).
Capper B bets 🍏 on overtime strategy in basketball, and the average odds there are around 15.00 (sometimes 12, sometimes higher than 20). He 🍏 made 1000 bets of 1000 rubles each and only 150 of them passed (15%). But what payments did he receive? 🍏 150x1000x15 = 2,250,000 rubles. That is, it is in the black by 1,250,000 rubles and has an insane ROI (Yield) 🍏 of + 125%!
Thus, in itself, the percentage of passability is completely uninformative. This indicator can be useful only in conjunction 🍏 with the average bettor's rate. If we multiply the pass percentage by the average coefficient, it becomes clear whether it 🍏 is a negative or positive capper.
75% х 1.25 = 0,9375 15% х 15 = 2,25
The break-even point in this case 🍏 is one. If the result is less than one, the capper is minus. If more than one - positive. The 🍏 greater the calculated difference with one, the better (or worse) the skills of this or that bettor. Also, the value 🍏 of the percentage of passability directly depends on the financial strategy chosen by the bettor (flat, catch-up, Kelly criterion, etc.), 🍏 in contrast to more objective betting metrics - ROI and Yield.
