Here’s a system Barrie came up with (apologies if anyone discovered it before, we never noticed).
The dreaded penalty shootout. At the end of, you are always guaranteed 1 team will win and 1 team will lose. Always guaranteed. But for 1 team to lose, at least 1 player has to miss a penalty. Ideally in the first 2 kicks for this system, but it doesn’t have to be that way at all.
How It Works
As long as your bookmaker allows you to bet on the upcoming penalty each time, this system has no flaws (please let me know if you want to debate that). As long as the scores are still level in the shootout, I put the same amount on each team to miss their next spot kick (odds are generally 12/5 or 5/2), and that goes up a few £ each time both penalties are converted. I imagine if the first 10 spot kicks are converted it’s squeaky bum time, but I haven’t experienced that yet.
An example:
A dull FA Cup semi final match between Manchester United and Everton in April 2009 ended 0-0 after extra time. In goal for Manchester United was their Carling Cup final penalty hero Ben Foster, and for Everton was Tom Howard, a saver of many spot kicks in his time. United had a young and reserve team out, whilst Everton had no players on the pitch who’d scored a penalty all season. Both teams were 5/2 to miss their 1st penalties, so I stuck £100 on each of these. I had a large smile on my face when Tim Cahill skied the opening penalty, guaranteeing me at least £150 profit. But I was in heaven when Dimitar Berbatov’s tame penalty was easily saved by Howard in the Everton goal.
That’s £500 profit! With the score still level, I cleared the profit from my head, pretended to be at £0 and put the same amount on both team’s missing their next spot kicks. When Leighton Baines scored Everton’s 2nd attempt, I was down £100 in my head. But Tim Howard came to my rescue again, saving from Rio Ferdinand and there was another £250, up £150 on the second round of kicks and up £650 from the shootout. As the scores were uneven for the rest of the shootout, no more money should go on.
This is an example of value betting. People expect the majority of spot kicks to be scored, which is nearly always the case, and the odds for each player to score are poor (around 1/3). So you’re better off backing the players to miss, in the way I have demonstrated, to make a big profit. Basically, it’s a more successful and profitable way of arbing! Now I’m backing those crazy disillusionists who want penalty shootouts at the end of each Premier League game!
