Went to showdown (WTSD) and Won money at showdown (W$SD) are two inversely correlated
indicators in online poker which can 💶 be used to read your opponents’ behavior after the
flop. As the percentage of hands a player goes to showdown 💶 with (WTSD) increases, the
percentage of the hands he actually wins (W$SD) goes down (more hands=less quality).
Use these poker 💶 HUD stats to figure out the probable strength of an opponent’s holding
after the flop.
If you play against somebody with 💶 a high WTSD you should be
relentlessly value betting – your opponent is a calling station and will pay off 💶 your
good hands. Conversely when you are against a player with low WTSD and high W$SD and he
bets you 💶 strongly on the river – fold your marginal hands without thinking twice.
Both
indicators converge relatively slowly and I wouldn’t put 💶 much trust in them before I
have at least 500 hands on a player.
Your own WTSD will vary according to 💶 your style,
but optimal range is considered to be between 25 and 35. Opponents with WTSD at 20 and
below 💶 should be bluffed non-stop and the 40+ you should definitely bet for value. Have
in mind that for shorter tables 💶 this HUD stat will be slightly higher.
W$SD is around
50-60% for most players. It will be higher for tighter players 💶 and lower for looser
ones. Don’t forget that it actually shows the % of won pots but not how much 💶 money is
won – a player win W$SD above 50 is not necessarily a winning one.
Examples using
WTSD
/For sake of 💶 simplicity we’ll assume all opponents have stacks of about
100BB/
Full ring table, we are UTG (under the gun – first 💶 to act) and we hold AKo. We
make a raise of 4xBB and everyone folds to the BB who calls. 💶 The flop comes 5 6 K of
different suits, obviously a great flop for us. The BB checks. Do we 💶 check or bet?
Let’s look at the stats.
a) VPIP=15 / PFR=8 / WTSD=21
We can’t win much by betting here
– 💶 the opponent will most likely fold. There is no danger of overpairs, flush or likely
straight draws, so we should 💶 check and give him a chance to improve to the second best
hand or bluff his money away.
It is a 💶 good idea also to look up the villain’s Fold to
C-Bet percentage – sometimes players insist on defending against C-Betting 💶 to an
irrational degree and if such is the case, you can make a small bet on the flop (let’s
💶 say 1/3-1/2 of the pot), have it called, check the turn and over-bet the river making
it look like a 💶 bluff.
b) VPIP=28 / PFR=5 / WTSD=44
This is a good place to value bet –
your opponent is loose and passive. 💶 To bet about half the pot seems correct – you don’t
want to chaise him away here.
Examples using both WTSD 💶 and W$SD
/For sake of simplicity
we’ll assume all opponents have stacks of about 100BB/
Let’s consider a situation
similar to the 💶 previous one.
Once again, we are UTG at a full ring table and we hold
AKo. We make a raise of 💶 4xBB and everyone folds to the BB who calls. Flop comes 5 6 K
of different suits. The BB checks, 💶 we bet half the pot, he calls. The turn is a 9 of
the forth suit, which removes the possibility 💶 of a flush but completes a straight. He
checks, we bet 2/3 the pot and the opponent again just calls. 💶 On the river comes a 10
and the opponent bets the size of the pot, thus giving us 2 to 💶 1 on a call. What do we
do?
a) VPIP=15 / PFR=8 / WTSD=21, W$SD=68
Well, statistically we are beaten. Our hand
💶 is basically a bluff catcher at this point and this guy doesn’t seem to bluff on the
river. Fold and 💶 save yourself some money.
b) VPIP=28 / PFR=5 / WTSD=44, W$SD=32
As far
as the betting sequence went, we have a marginal 💶 hand at best. However our opponent is
exactly the kind of loose-weak player to call in such a situation. The 💶 pot odds of 2/1
and his losing record from similar situations should make this a call with positive
expectancy.
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