This variance calculator and simulator for poker is handy and easy to use. Just enter
your winrate, standard deviation and ⚽️ the number of hands to simulate. You’ll most
certainly get insightful results. Read below how to use this simulator.
Enter Game
⚽️ Parameters Winrate in BB / 100 Observed winrate in BB / 100 (optional) Standard
deviation Examples for standard deviations NLH ⚽️ full ring: 60-80 BB/100 NLH 6-max:
75-120 BB/100 PLO full ring: 100-140 BB/100 PLO 6-max: 120-160 BB/100 stat can be ⚽️ found
in PokerTracker or HEM Number of hands Calculate 20 samples and confidence intervals
Hit "Calculate"! EV, confidence intervals and ⚽️ samples in BB, Best / Worst: Best and
worst run out of 1000 trials EV, confidence intervals and samples in ⚽️ BB, Best / Worst:
Best and worst run out of 1000 trials Variance in numbers Detailed sample with
downswings Hands: ⚽️ 1.0 Million hands Winnings in BB on right axis, current downswing in
BB on left axis. Depending on the number ⚽️ of hands displayed, the extent and number of
downswings may be underrepresented due to the resolution of the graph. Winnings ⚽️ in BB
on right axis, current downswing in BB on left axis. Depending on the number of hands
displayed, the ⚽️ extent and number of downswings may be underrepresented due to the
resolution of the graph. Downswings in numbers
How to use ⚽️ my Poker Variance
Calculator?
This section will explain how the calculator works and what the numbers and
charts mean.
Enter the data ⚽️ Settings Hop over to the Variance Calculator page and enter
your win rate, standard deviation, and the number of hands ⚽️ you want to simulate. You
can ignore the field observed win rate, we’ll get to its purpose later. Once you ⚽️ have
entered the data, hit Calculate and let the Calculator do its magic.
Twenty samples
Variance Calculator Samples The first thing ⚽️ the Variance Calculator does is to run 20
samples over the number of hands, win rate and standard deviation specified. ⚽️ It’ll also
calculate the expected winnings over the number of hands. This number will appear as a
rather boring straight ⚽️ and black line in the graph. Thirdly the calculator displays the
70% and 95% confidence intervals as light and dark ⚽️ green curves. What you need to know
about them is that at any given time your winnings will be within ⚽️ these intervals with
a probability of 70% and 95% respectively. They basically show, how much variance you
should expect to ⚽️ see.
Variance in numbers
Below the first chart, the Variance
Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information:
EV : win rate entered
⚽️ above
: win rate entered above Standard deviation : standard deviation entered above
:
standard deviation entered above Hands : number of ⚽️ hands entered above
: number of
hands entered above Expected winnings : estimated winnings over the simulated amount of
hands
: estimated ⚽️ winnings over the simulated amount of hands Standard deviation after
X hands : This number shows how much your actual ⚽️ results will differ from the expected
results on average. The first number shows the absolute value and the second translates
⚽️ this number into BB/100, showing the impact on your win rate.
: This number shows how
much your actual results will ⚽️ differ from the expected results on average. The first
number shows the absolute value and the second translates this number ⚽️ into BB/100,
showing the impact on your win rate. 70% confidence interval : Your actual results over
the simulated amount ⚽️ of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first
interval shows absolute numbers and the second ⚽️ translates those into BB/100, showing
the 70% confidence interval for your win rate.
: Your actual results over the simulated
amount ⚽️ of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first interval shows
absolute numbers and the second ⚽️ translates those into BB/100, showing the 70%
confidence interval for your win rate. 95% confidence interval : Same as the ⚽️ above with
95% certainty. Meaning: 19 out of 20 times your actual winnings will be within this
interval.
: Same as ⚽️ the above with 95% certainty. Meaning: 19 out of 20 times your
actual winnings will be within this interval. Probability ⚽️ of loss after X hands : the
probability that you will experience negative winnings (meaning: losses) over the
number of ⚽️ hands.
: the probability that you will experience negative winnings (meaning:
losses) over the number of hands. Probability of running at ⚽️ or above observed win rate
… : If you entered an observed win rate, this number will show you the ⚽️ probability that
you will experience a run at or above this win rate over the number of hands.
: If you
⚽️ entered an observed win rate, this number will show you the probability that you will
experience a run at or ⚽️ above this win rate over the number of hands. Probability of
running below observed win rate … : Same as ⚽️ above – the probability that you will
experience a run below the observed win rate over the number of hands.
: ⚽️ Same as above
– the probability that you will experience a run below the observed win rate over the
number ⚽️ of hands. Minimum bankroll for less than 5% risk of ruin: the bankroll needed to
have a risk of ruin ⚽️ of less than 5%
Detailed sample with downswing
Variance Calculator
Downswing Samples
This chart simulates a single run over 100 thousand up to ⚽️ 10 million
hands with the win rate and standard deviation entered above. You can choose how many
hands to simulate ⚽️ by moving the slider.
Apart from showing a single sample, this graph
also shows some insightful information about downswings. The red ⚽️ area shows for any
given point, how much the sample is currently away from its previous peak, meaning it
tracks ⚽️ downswings. This chart uses two vertical axes. While the sample winnings have
their scale on the right axis, the downswing ⚽️ tracker has its scale on the left axis. In
this example, the simulated player ended up with winnings over 25,000 ⚽️ big blinds after
2.5 million hands but had to deal with a nasty downswing of almost 10,000 big blinds
between ⚽️ hand 1.2 million and hand 2 million.
Downswings in numbers
The last section of
the Variance Calculator sheds some more light on ⚽️ potential downswings. Therefore 100
million hands are simulated and all downswings over this simulation are tracked. The
first table shows ⚽️ the extent of the downswings. It shows how often the simulated player
was stuck in a downswing of at least ⚽️ X big blinds. For example (1000+ BB – 31.77%)
means the player was in the middle of a downswing of ⚽️ at least 1,000 big blinds 31.77
percent of the time.
The second table shows how long downswings last on average. For
⚽️ example (50000+ Hands – 15.81%) means the simulated player was in a downswing over at
least 50,000 hands 15.81 percent ⚽️ of the time. For the purpose of these calculations, a
downswing is defined as any period where the current total ⚽️ winnings are below the
maximum previous total winnings. Meaning, that by this definition a downswing is not
over until the ⚽️ player has fully recovered his losses.
In general, these simulations
underestimate the extent of downswings, but the numbers should still give ⚽️ you a decent
idea of the vastness of downswings you should expect.
Should you have any questions,
encounter any errors or ⚽️ have ideas for improvements, please let me know.
» Tournament
Variance Calculator
» Examples and Impacts of Variance in Cash Games
» ICM ⚽️ Calculator
»
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