I think we can all agree there isn’t anything sexier in poker than a big overbet. (If there is, let☀️ me know what in the comments below.)
From the early days of high stakes online poker, the overbet was first popularized☀️ by online legends like Tom Dwan and Dan “Jungleman” Cates.
The strategy behind overbetting was pretty crude back when it first☀️ started gaining popularity. But as time progressed, talented players have helped refine overbetting into a more exact science.
Now in the☀️ modern era of solvers, Upswing is taking the strategy behind optimal overbetting to an even higher level with coach Daniel☀️ “dougiedan678” McAulay’s new “Turn C-bet: Overbetting” learning module.
This module goes into amazing detail on everything you need to know about☀️ how to master turn overbetting, but in this preview I wanted to give you some of the basic concepts taken☀️ from the course.
In the following sections, I’ll go over 3 basic questions about overbetting on turns:
Why do we overbet?
When do☀️ we overbet?
How much do we overbet?
Remember, this article is only scratching the surface. If you’re serious about mastering the turn☀️ overbet, check out the full 3-hour learning module in the Upswing Lab.
Let’s get started!
Why Do We Overbet on the Turn?
We’ve☀️ already established that overbetting is really cool, so let’s go over why you might want to overbet in a given☀️ situation.
Here are the primary upsides to overbetting on the turn:
We get more value with our strong hands.
We get to bluff☀️ with a higher proportion of our range (see: Minimum Defense Frequency).
We force our opponent to fold more, and this means☀️ they realize less equity.
Most of the time our opponents will be reluctant to raise vs an overbet (which is correct☀️ on their part). This allows us to realize more equity by always getting to see the river while also being☀️ in position. It also allows us to control the size of the pot going into the river.
When to Overbet on☀️ the Turn
Some of the reasons for why to overbet are pretty intuitive. But many players struggle with is knowing when☀️ to overbet and how much to overbet.
There are three main scenarios where overbetting is appropriate:
When have the nut advantage (more☀️ very strong hands than our opponent). When our opponents range is capped (in other words, he has no/few very strong☀️ hands). When the turn (or river) card is a brick.
Scenario 1 example:
We are on the Button facing the Big Blind☀️ in a single raised pot. The flop comes A♣ K♥ 6♦ and our c-bet gets called. The turn comes the☀️ 2♣.
In this case, both players can have hands like A6, K6, 66, and A2. However, because the big blind did☀️ not 3-bet us preflop, we know he cannot have the very best hands (AA, AK, and KK). Meanwhile, we can☀️ have all of these hands in our range, along with 3 combinations of 22 for a turned set.
This all gives☀️ a significant nut advantage over our opponent and makes for a great overbet spot.
Scenario 2 example:
The hand from scenario 1☀️ can also be used to describe scenario 2, but let’s elaborate a little further.
Oftentimes on flops, players will check-raise with☀️ the very top of their range, which sometimes can leave them exposed to having a capped range on some turns.
Let’s☀️ consider A♣ K♥ 6♦ 2♣, again. We already know that we have the nut advantage. But on top of that,☀️ we can assume that some of the strongest hands in our opponent’s range (like 66) are often going to be☀️ check-raised on the flop.
Suppose that we know our opponent will check-raise 66 and most of his two-pair hands on the☀️ flop. If that’s the case, his turn range after check-calling is largely capped to the odd number of A2 combos☀️ he might have.
Given this, we can go to town with a very aggressive selection of turn overbets with our value☀️ hands and bluffs. This allows us to apply maximum pressure to our opponent.
Scenario 3 example:
When it comes to overbetting brick☀️ turns, let’s mix things up and change the board to 7♥ 4♦ 2♠ with the Q♣ falling on the turn.
The☀️ brick turn concept will most often apply to situations like this, where the flop is all low cards and the☀️ turn peels off a random high card that doesn’t make many two-pair combos for our opponent.
Since our opponent is likely☀️ folding hands like Q2o, Q4o, and Q7o preflop, the Q♣ is a brick for his range. Granted, he can have☀️ some combos of suited hands like Q♠ 4♠, but those make up a very small part of his range.
You could☀️ also look at this spot from the perspective that the Q♣ mostly improves our range. This is because we have☀️ a large number of Qx overcard hands that bet flop (like QJ/QT), in addition to a number of other value☀️ hands that aren’t phased by this turn (like KK or 22).
Whatever way you choose to look at it, this is☀️ another great overbet spot.
How Much to Overbet
It’s not uncommon among great players to see overbets ranging in size from anywhere☀️ between 125%-300% pot. Sometimes even more.
Given that there are so many sizing options, the question of “how much to overbet?”☀️ is in large part why this new overbetting module in the Upswing Lab is so valuable.
Getting into all the nuances☀️ of overbet sizings is outside the scope of this article, but here are some basic tips for choosing how much☀️ to overbet:
The bigger our nut advantage, the bigger we can overbet
On boards where we are the only player that can☀️ have the nuts, we can theoretically bet all-in regardless of stack depth (even if it’s 10 times the pot).
Optimal turn☀️ overbet sizes will largely come down to board textures. A-high boards, broadway boards, middling boards, paired boards, and monotone boards☀️ can potentially have very different optimal sizes.
These quick tips are sure to make you print money with your overbet sizings.
Final☀️ Thoughts
I want to re-emphasize one last time that we’ve only scratched the surface of overbetting in this article. There are☀️ so many more interesting principles to discuss on this topic like range-construction, blockers, betting rivers after overbetting the turn etc.
With☀️ all this in mind, I again encourage you to check out the full module yourselves in the Upswing Lab.
In the☀️ meantime, we’d love to hear from you. What has been your experience with overbetting, and what kinds of factors are☀️ you considering when you’re setting up a big turn overbet?
As always I’ll be happy to respond to any questions in☀️ the comments section below. Until next time, good luck at the tables!
