The easiest way to explain how to find value bets is with the example of a coin toss.
When tossing 🛡 a coin there can only be two outcomes; heads or tails. We know that the
probability of the coin toss 🛡 to land on either heads or tails are 50% each. In decimal
odds, this equals to an odds of 2.00 🛡 for either outcome.
This is called the “fair odds”
and represents the true probability of an outcome to occur if the 🛡 bookmaker wouldn’t
add their profit margin, or “vig”. To calculate the likelihood of this happening in
decimal odds we use 🛡 this formula: Odds = 1/probability in decimals. In this example,
the odds would be: 1/0.5= 2.00 which is the accurate 🛡 odds of this specific outcome to
happen.
A value bet
Now take the above coin toss example and imagine you were offered
🛡 odds of 2.10 on heads at one bookmaker. Would you take that bet? Does it have an edge?
Since you 🛡 get better odds than the actual probability of the outcome to happen you
should, of course, take the bet.
The odds 🛡 of 2.10 is higher than what the underlying
probability suggests, creating an edge – a value bet. The bigger the 🛡 difference, the
more profitable the value bet will be and the more advantage and profits you can expect
against the 🛡 bookies.
When you place a value bet in sports betting, the expected value
is shown as a percentage number. How is 🛡 this expected value calculated and how do you
find value betting situations? Well, bookies don’t have a perfectly balanced betting
🛡 market. Very often, betting odds that a bookmaker offer
The true odds
You might ask
yourself how we know what the real 🛡 probability, or the true odds, should be? Our value
bets finder compare millions of odds, market moves and other bookmaker 🛡 data against so
called sharp bookmakers. A sharp bookmaker has deep knowledge about the sports betting
market and has the 🛡 “real odds” which lies very close to actual true probability
(likelihood) of an outcome to occur.
These accurate odds, together with 🛡 betting bias
(which is weighted into the bookmaker profit margin) and market efficiency are used in
the value betting software 🛡 to finding odds with value in sports events. This together
with the built in Kelly Criterion staking strategy, that for 🛡 each value bet calculate
the optimal bet size for maximum growth of your bankroll, makes the value betting
software a 🛡 winning way to turn gambling on sports betting into an investment.
