A case card in poker is the last card of a certain rank remaining in the deck. This
means that ⚾️ the other three cards of that rank have either been dealt or exposed at some
point earlier in the hand.
For ⚾️ example, imagine we hold an Ace on a AAx flop in
Hold’em. There is only one ace left in the ⚾️ deck that can give us quads, the case
Ace.
In this guide we’ll learn the following -
What Does it Mean to ⚾️ Draw to a Case Card
in Poker?
If we are drawing to a case card it essentially means that we only ⚾️ have one
out left in the deck that can complete our draw. Drawing to case cards is a bad thing
⚾️ because it means we are going to miss in the vast majority of cases. A common example
is having a ⚾️ dominated three of a kind and needing to hit the last remaining card of a
certain rank to make quads ⚾️ and win the pot.
Will we Always Know if We are Drawing to
the Case Card?
Sometimes we might think we have ⚾️ two outs to improve (for example we
hold two aces and need to improve to three of a kind) but ⚾️ it turns out that another
player folded one of our outs earlier on in the hand. We are technically drawing ⚾️ to the
case ace but have no way of knowing there aren’t still two aces in the deck. In
televised ⚾️ poker, the commentators may have seen that the ace was folded earlier in the
hand and correctly realise that a ⚾️ player is drawing to the case ace even though the
player himself has no idea.
What Does it Mean to ‘Catch ⚾️ the Case Ace’ in
Poker?
Catching the case Ace means we hit the last available ace in the deck. For
example, ⚾️ we hold three of a kind aces in Hold’em but are currently losing to a full
house. If we hit ⚾️ the last remaining ace in the deck to make quads this is known as
‘catching the case ace’.
How Likely is ⚾️ it to Catch a Case Card?
Catching a case card is
very unlikely in Hold’em. From flop to turn 2.1% of ⚾️ the time. From turn to river 2.2%
of the time. And from flop to river 4.3% of the time. Basically, ⚾️ don’t count on it,
it’s probably not going to happen.
Summary
Drawing to case cards is usually not
favorable since we are ⚾️ extremely unlikely to hit. As poker players we should always be
aware of when it is worth drawing and when ⚾️ it is not. Chasing unlikely events is a good
way to lose a lot of chips.
