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Last updated: September 12, 2024
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Buster
Blackjack
Introduction
I 🌜 saw Buster Blackjack in Lake Tahoe on July 9, 2024, but I
think it has been around for years. The 🌜 bet wins if the dealer busts. The more cards it
takes, the more the player wins. The bet is marketed 🌜 by AGS.
Rules
The rules to the
side bet are quite simple. If the dealer busts, then the player wins according to 🌜 how
many cards were needed to bust. If the dealer does not bust, then the side bet loses. I
know 🌜 of two pay tables, which are shown below. All wins are on a "to one"
basis.
Version 1 Pay Table Cards 🌜 Pays 8 or more 250 7 50 6 15 5 4 3 or 4 2
Version 2
assumes that if the 🌜 player gets a blackjack, then the dealer will still play out his
hand.
Version 2 Pay Table Cards Pays 8+ cards 🌜 & player BJ 2000 7 cards & player BJ 800
8+ cards & no player BJ 250 7 cards & 🌜 no player BJ 50 6 cards 18 5 cards 4 3 or 4 cards
2
Pay Table 1 Analysis
The following table 🌜 shows the probability and return of all
possible outcomes, assuming six decks and the dealer hits a soft 17. The 🌜 lower right
cell shows a house edge of 6.21%.
Pay Table 1 — Six Decks — Dealer Hits Soft 17 Event
🌜 Pays Probability Return Bust with 8 cards 250 0.000012 0.002986 Bust with 7 cards 50
0.000214 0.010722 Bust with 6 🌜 cards 12 0.002638 0.031651 Bust with 5 cards 4 0.020473
0.08189 Bust with 4 cards 2 0.089392 0.178784 Bust with 🌜 3 cards 2 0.173032 0.346064
Dealer doesn't bust -1 0.714241 -0.714241 Total 1.000000 -0.062143
The next table shows
the house edge 🌜 for other number of decks and whether the dealer hits or stands on soft
17.
House Edge Summary Decks Stand on
Soft 🌜 17 Hit on
Soft 17 1 8.77% 6.89% 2 8.48%
6.51% 4 8.31% 6.29% 5 8.27% 6.25% 6 8.25% 6.21% 8 🌜 8.22% 6.17%
Pay Table 2 Analysis
The
following table shows the probability and return of all possible outcomes, assuming six
decks and 🌜 the dealer stands on a soft 17. The lower right cell shows a house edge of
6.20%.
Pay Table 2 — 🌜 Six Decks — Dealer Stands on Soft 17 Event Pays Probability Return
8+ cards & player BJ 2000 0.00000037 0.000746886 🌜 7 cards & player BJ 800 0.00000786
0.006284453 8+ cards 250 0.00000808 0.002024582 7 cards 50 0.00016478 0.008239127 6
cards 🌜 18 0.00231512 0.041672197 5 cards 4 0.01911939 0.076477552 3 or 4 cards 2
0.26030574 0.520611475 No bust -1 0.71807866 -0.718078658 🌜 Total 1.00000000
-0.062026386
Mega Blackjack
Mega Blackjack is a blackjack variant that has special pay
tables for the Buster Blackjack bet, as 🌜 shown below. Note that for pay table 3 the
dealer must bust with four or more cards for the side 🌜 bet to win.
Buster Blackjack
Version 3 Event Pays Probability Return Bust with 8+ cards 250 0.000012 0.002986 Bust
with 7 🌜 cards 50 0.000214 0.010722 Bust with 6 cards 15 0.002638 0.039564 Bust with 5
cards 10 0.020473 0.204726 Bust with 🌜 4 cards 6 0.089392 0.536351 All other -1 0.887272
-0.887272 Total 1.000000 -0.092923
Version 2 of Buster Blackjack has a pay 🌜 table that
pays for any busted dealer hand of three or more cards. The lower right cell shows a
house 🌜 edge of 13.79%.
Buster Blackjack Version 4 Event Pays Probability Return Bust
with 8+ cards 250 0.000012 0.002986 Bust with 7 🌜 cards 50 0.000214 0.010722 Bust with 6
cards 15 0.002638 0.039564 Bust with 5 cards 4 0.020473 0.081890 Bust with 🌜 4 cards 3
0.089392 0.268175 Bust with 3 cards 1 0.173032 0.173032 All other -1 0.714240 -0.714240
Total 1.000000 -0.137870
Evolution 🌜 Gaming
The live dealer studio by Evolution Gaming
offers a game called Infinite Blackjack with the following pay table. The other 🌜 rules
are eight decks, dealer stands on soft 17, and the dealer always plays out his hand,
even if the 🌜 player gets blackjack. The lower right cell shows a house edge of
6.18%.
Evolution Gaming Pay Table and Rules Event Pays 🌜 Probability Return Bust with 8+
cards 250 0.000009 0.002216 Bust with 7 cards 100 0.000177 0.017679 Bust with 6 cards
🌜 50 0.002337 0.116829 Bust with 5 cards 9 0.019139 0.172254 Bust with 4 cards 2 0.087163
0.174325 Bust with 3 🌜 cards 1 0.173015 0.173015 Dealer doesn't bust -1 0.718160
-0.718160 Total 1.000000 -0.061842
General Dealer Analysis
As long as I took the
🌜 trouble to analyze this bet, I created a table showing the probability of various
dealer events for a six-deck and 🌜 eight-deck games and whether the dealer hits or stands
on a soft 17.
Dealer Probabilities — Six Decks Event Stand Soft 🌜 17 Hit Soft 17 Dealer
blackjack 0.0474894880039574 0.0474894880039574 Total of 17 0.1452452688762730
0.1334589459656700 Total of 18 0.1392577712671790 0.1412046774882130 Total of 🌜 19
0.1336847392868550 0.1356816733415020 Total of 20 0.1795273038236620 0.1815306022489940
Total of 21 0.0728740870713831 0.0748744175668735 Bust with 3 cards 0.1730318431697950
0.1730318431697950 Bust 🌜 with 4 cards 0.0872738945778543 0.0893918097334332 Bust with 5
cards 0.0191193879779139 0.0204725508735587 Bust with 6 cards 0.0023151220619265
0.0026376021859953 Bust with 7 🌜 cards 0.0001726381111420 0.0002144441681795 Bust with 8
cards 0.0000082097440626 0.0000115279883244 Bust with 9 cards 0.0000002420252193
0.0000004080497202 Bust with 10 cards 0.0000000039733294 🌜 0.0000000090950948 Bust with
11 cards 0.0000000000293970 0.0000000001198596 Bust with 12 cards 0.0000000000000475
0.0000000000008244 Bust with 13 cards 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000000022 Total
🌜 1.0000000000000000 1.0000000000000000
Dealer Probabilities — Eight Decks Event Stand
Soft 17 Hit Soft 17 Total of 17 0.145215 0.133409 Total of 🌜 18 0.139318 0.141280 Total
of 19 0.133629 0.135630 Total of 20 0.179709 0.181714 Total of 21 0.072838 0.074841
Blackjack 0.047451 🌜 0.047451 Bust with 3 cards 0.173015 0.173015 Bust with 4 cards
0.087163 0.089276 Bust with 5 cards 0.019139 0.020491 Bust 🌜 with 6 cards 0.002337
0.002661 Bust with 7 cards 0.000177 0.000219 Bust with 8 cards 8.60E-06 1.21E-05 Bust
with 9 🌜 cards 2.63E-07 4.44E-07 Bust with 10 cards 4.58E-09 1.06E-08 Bust with 11 cards
3.76E-11 1.55E-10 Bust with 12 cards 8.35E-14 🌜 1.29E-12 Bust with 13 cards 0.00E+00
4.56E-15
External Links
Discussion of Buster Blackjack in my forum at Wizard of
Vegas.
Discussion of Buster 🌜 Blackjack in my forum at Card Counting the Buster Blackjack
Side Bet at A.P. Heat.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
