Betting on Penalty Shootouts
The ‘dreaded’ penalty shootout is a common feature of knockout football tournaments and as every commentator in📉 every shootout will tell you, going out on penalties is a ‘terrible way to lose’.
Right as they may be, there’s📉 a certain science and pattern to penalty shootouts that not everyone is aware of, and knowing the numbers can help📉 you turn a profit if you’re sick enough to bet in-play on football’s equivalent of Russian Roulette.
Penalties by Numbers
Where there’s📉 a significant sample size of something, there’ll always be nerds to analyse the data and present it in a nice📉 neat fashion for less clever people to understand, and that’s exactly what several research groups have done over the years*.
An📉 overwhelming feature of the hand-waving analysis of penalty kicks by pundits and journalists comes down to simple cognitive bias. If📉 a penalty is saved, it’s invariably described as a poor kick. Similarly if the ball hits the back of the📉 net, the kicker is described as cool and calm under pressure. This is of course, rubbish, and variance or ‘luck’📉 to the great un-hosed is the real factor at work here.
One of the main findings of shootout research is that📉 about 80% of penalties are made, but the interesting part comes when you break them down by when they occur:
First📉 kick 86.6%
Second kick 81.7%
Third kick 79.3%
Fourth kick 72.5%
Fifth kick 80%
‘Sudden death’ kicks 64.3%
You can see that as the pressure mounts,📉 the success rate drops. This suggests that maybe teams should hold their best penalty takers until last. Also, you can📉 see that the fifth kick which is often the one to win the match comes with less pressure than those📉 in the middle stages, and there is a big drop for the do-or-die sudden death kicks.
The data can be further📉 broken down by player type. Strikers have the best success rate with 83.1% while defenders struggle, converting just 73.6% of📉 kicks; a pretty big discrepancy.
Another factor is age; players 22 or under are successful 85% of the time while their📉 older teammates are at about 78%. So, if you see a 30-year-old defender taking the first kick and you’re being📉 offered the same odds on him as you are on a 21-year-old striker taking the first kick, you know things📉 are out of whack.
Knowing these numbers can give you a huge edge in betting on penalty shootouts. Most kicks will📉 come with odds around the 1.17 mark, so look to exploit this with the information in this article and you’ll📉 wind up with a tidy profit.
Straight Down the Middle
The studies also shows some other interesting results. In isolation, if you📉 want to score a penalty, kick it high and straight down the middle. 40% of all penalties are taken low📉 and to the right.
Kicks in the middle of the goal were successful 87% of the time though, mostly down to📉 the fact that goalkeepers jump to the left or right 94% of the time. The stats also show that a📉 goalkeeper is much better staying put rather than diving.
The most telling statistic though, is the height at which the ball📉 is kicked. 57% of penalties are in the lower third of the goal and they go in about 80% of📉 the time. On the other hand, 13% of kicks are struck at the top third and from the data used📉 in the study, 100% of them hit the net.
Of course, kicking high comes with the added risk of ballooning the📉 ball into the stands, but if you’re got the guts and trust your technique, then aim high and in the📉 middle of the goal. There’s a reason why Alan Shearer was such a renowned penalty taker….
*Data from: Jordet, G., Hartman,📉 E., Visscher, C. and Lemmink, K. A. P. M. (2006) Kicks from the penalty mark in soccer: The roles of📉 stress, skill, and fatigue for kick outcomes. Journal of Sports Sciences, 1-9, Preview article.
