Luck vs Skill: What Makes a Winning Bet
Editor
Every bettor hopes that Lady Luck will be on their side, but a 🔑 profitable day at the office requires more than good fortune.
Luck can’t be ignored completely but to win at sports betting, 🔑 skill and an understanding of probability is essential.
This guide examines the roles that luck and skill both play in a 🔑 winning bet.
The Role of Luck
If sports were predictable, no one would watch them. There’s nothing exciting about watching the team 🔑 with the statistical advantage win every time.
The appeal of sport is that anything could happen, whether it’s the underdog lifting 🔑 the FA Cup or the unseeded wildcard picking up the Australian Open.
This unpredictability is the enemy of the sports bettor 🔑 because it means no matter how carefully statistics and probability are studied, there’s always the chance of a blow-out.
A hefty 🔑 dose of luck - good or bad - can influence any bet. However, solely relying on luck will statistically result 🔑 in losses.
There is a way of minimising the impact of luck, and that’s by avoiding sports where luck plays a 🔑 disproportionately large role. Sports where there are a lot of variables tend to be more affected by luck.
For example, luck 🔑 may affect the outcome of a golf tournament more frequently than a tennis match. Tennis is played in a more 🔑 sheltered environment, on a constant surface and with only two possible winners. Golf tournaments have a field of 90+ participants, 🔑 the surface is variable, and it’s very exposed to changes in the weather. In addition, one poor hole can destroy 🔑 the chances of winning the whole round, whereas in tennis it’s possible to recover from one lost rally because it’s 🔑 only a single point.
The Role of Probability
Probability is all about statistical analysis. This means analysing the data objectively to identify 🔑 the probability of both a win, and a loss. This is where some bettors fail; it’s not enough to simply 🔑 look at the probability of winning, the probability of losing matters too.
However, there are different types of probability: true probability 🔑 and implied probability.
The odds quoted by bookmakers make it possible to calculate implied probability. The table below shows some simple 🔑 odds and the equivalent implied probability:
Fractional odds Decimal odds Implied Probability 1/1 (evens) 2.0 50% 2/1 3.0 33.3% 3/1 4.0 🔑 25% 4/1 5.0 20% 5/1 6.0 16.7% 6/1 7.0 14.3% 7/1 8.0 12.5% 8/1 9.0 11.1% 9/1 10.0 10% 10/1 🔑 11.0 9.1% 1/2 1.5 66.7% 1/3 1.33 75% 1/4 1.25 80% 1/5 1.2 83.3%
Every set of odds can be converted 🔑 into an implied probability. This reflects what the bookmaker thinks is the probability of happening, with a house margin built 🔑 in.
For example, odds of 2/1 have an implied probability. This means that in every three events, two are expected to 🔑 result in a loss and one in a win. But does this really reflect the true situation?
The implied probability is 🔑 different to the true probability, because of the house margin for the bookmaker.
Bettors can compare the implied probability to the 🔑 true probability. Doing this allows bets which offer good value to be found at a variety of bookmakers.
For example, if 🔑 the true probability of a team with 2/1 odds and 33% implied probability was closer to a 50% chance of 🔑 winning, this bet could offer value.
Knowledge of the Sport
Anyone who understands probability, analysis and statistics could make a decent attempt 🔑 at placing a sports bet. Taking this very technical approach could prove to be successful, but for the very best 🔑 chance of winning, it’s better to have expert knowledge of the sport.
There are multiple factors which could influence the outcome, 🔑 and they can’t all be checked by simple probability.
Bookmakers use sophisticated systems of probability which take into account measurable factors. 🔑 This could include:
Head-to-head results
Recent form
Injuries
Weather
Home advantage
In a fast-moving market, odds have to be produced quickly and accurately, and calculations rely 🔑 on algorithms and programs.
Bettors with expert knowledge of a particular sport, a player, or a team can gain a small 🔑 advantage over the bookmaker. This is because there are some factors which aren’t quantifiable; bettors can use this expert knowledge 🔑 to interrogate the implied probability and try to find value bets.
Summing Up: Luck or Skill?
Luck will always play some part 🔑 in sports betting but the role of knowledge and skill is far greater. Using skill, experience and knowledge to get 🔑 the most out of available statistics can offer huge potential that eclipses simple good fortune.
