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I replay that hand in my head, from time-to-time, and always pause at the moment when

the dealer taps the ❤️ table, right before she flips the river card up. I glance one more

time at the board: Kc Jc 8h ❤️ 5c.

“Ace, Queen, Ten, Club,” I hear my section of the rail

shouting.

It didn’t come.

It’s been a decade since the river ❤️ blanked off, but it still

feels like yesterday. I don’t compete in tournaments often, so I still haven’t got the

❤️ chance to rewrite that history with a different result.

The truth is, unless you grind

the circuit full time, play small ❤️ field high-rollers, or, frankly, are on the positive

side of variance more than your fair share, you may not either.

It’s ❤️ something I

understood conceptually as a professional, but until I lived it, I couldn’t fully grasp

the nature of tournaments, ❤️ and to a larger extent, poker in general.

It’s not just

winning your coin flips, where one experiences the luck. Variance ❤️ comes in many forms

in poker: You may get coolered with the second nuts to the nuts, or your opponent ❤️ may

draw out on you.

But variance also comes in hidden forms: a bad turn card that kills

your action; or ❤️ positional variance, such as getting aces under the gun instead of on

the button; or situational variance, by merely being ❤️ in the right place at the right

time to get into a great game, which earns you a fortune.

While these ❤️ things will, in

theory, even out over the long run, poker players, too often, don’t realize just how

long that ❤️ long run is. In the meantime, they go broke in the name of expectation, never

reaching the point where their ❤️ skill trumps the luck.

Just how long does it take?

In a

sentence, much longer than you think.

In tournament poker, evening out ❤️ the variance can

take a lifetime or two.

This explains the phenomenon of how the world’s best players

can go years ❤️ without winning a major event. Conversely, there will always be a

fortunate few who go on to win multiple events ❤️ in a short period of time.

Most people

will associate this hot streak solely with skill; when, in fact, luck was ❤️ the principle

contributor to someone winning on any given day.

This is not to say that all successful

tournament professionals are ❤️ merely benefactors of good fortune; some are truly

phenomenal players. But it’s important to remember that for every one superstar, ❤️ there

are likely 100 players of equal caliber who just haven’t caught the right breaks, never

won an event, and ❤️ thus never had the opportunity to further pursue their tournament

career.

This harsh reality doesn’t mean that winners are good, and ❤️ losers are bad, or

that there’s no skill for those who win. It just means that luck supersedes everything

else, ❤️ in the short term, which as you’ll see in a moment, isn’t all that short.

But

just when you want to ❤️ curse your fortune, blaming bad luck for your losses, remember

this one thing. Poker is unique in that it’s the ❤️ most competitively played game where

luck plays a significant factor in the final outcome (other sports have variance–the

best football ❤️ team doesn’t always win–but it’s much less significant than in

poker).

And thank God for it.

As Phil Hellmuth famously states, “If ❤️ there were no luck

involved, I’d win every time.” Some may question his assurance, but the implications of

his idea ❤️ are telling. No professional truly wishes there were less luck involved. If

there were, poker would be like chess and ❤️ the action would dry up.

You may be thinking

I’m exaggerating, and that luck really isn’t as big of a factor ❤️ as I make it out to be.

Well, let’s look at what the math says. I love numbers, because they ❤️ never lie.

Here is

a simple variance calculator program that I use to get a grip on just how profound the

❤️ role of luck is in poker tournaments.

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