This variance calculator and simulator for poker is handy and easy to use. Just enter
your winrate, standard deviation and 1️⃣ the number of hands to simulate. You’ll most
certainly get insightful results. Read below how to use this simulator.
Enter Game
1️⃣ Parameters Winrate in BB / 100 Observed winrate in BB / 100 (optional) Standard
deviation Examples for standard deviations NLH 1️⃣ full ring: 60-80 BB/100 NLH 6-max:
75-120 BB/100 PLO full ring: 100-140 BB/100 PLO 6-max: 120-160 BB/100 stat can be 1️⃣ found
in PokerTracker or HEM Number of hands Calculate 20 samples and confidence intervals
Hit "Calculate"! EV, confidence intervals and 1️⃣ samples in BB, Best / Worst: Best and
worst run out of 1000 trials EV, confidence intervals and samples in 1️⃣ BB, Best / Worst:
Best and worst run out of 1000 trials Variance in numbers Detailed sample with
downswings Hands: 1️⃣ 1.0 Million hands Winnings in BB on right axis, current downswing in
BB on left axis. Depending on the number 1️⃣ of hands displayed, the extent and number of
downswings may be underrepresented due to the resolution of the graph. Winnings 1️⃣ in BB
on right axis, current downswing in BB on left axis. Depending on the number of hands
displayed, the 1️⃣ extent and number of downswings may be underrepresented due to the
resolution of the graph. Downswings in numbers
How to use 1️⃣ my Poker Variance
Calculator?
This section will explain how the calculator works and what the numbers and
charts mean.
Enter the data 1️⃣ Settings Hop over to the Variance Calculator page and enter
your win rate, standard deviation, and the number of hands 1️⃣ you want to simulate. You
can ignore the field observed win rate, we’ll get to its purpose later. Once you 1️⃣ have
entered the data, hit Calculate and let the Calculator do its magic.
Twenty samples
Variance Calculator Samples The first thing 1️⃣ the Variance Calculator does is to run 20
samples over the number of hands, win rate and standard deviation specified. 1️⃣ It’ll also
calculate the expected winnings over the number of hands. This number will appear as a
rather boring straight 1️⃣ and black line in the graph. Thirdly the calculator displays the
70% and 95% confidence intervals as light and dark 1️⃣ green curves. What you need to know
about them is that at any given time your winnings will be within 1️⃣ these intervals with
a probability of 70% and 95% respectively. They basically show, how much variance you
should expect to 1️⃣ see.
Variance in numbers
Below the first chart, the Variance
Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information:
EV : win rate entered
1️⃣ above
: win rate entered above Standard deviation : standard deviation entered above
:
standard deviation entered above Hands : number of 1️⃣ hands entered above
: number of
hands entered above Expected winnings : estimated winnings over the simulated amount of
hands
: estimated 1️⃣ winnings over the simulated amount of hands Standard deviation after
X hands : This number shows how much your actual 1️⃣ results will differ from the expected
results on average. The first number shows the absolute value and the second translates
1️⃣ this number into BB/100, showing the impact on your win rate.
: This number shows how
much your actual results will 1️⃣ differ from the expected results on average. The first
number shows the absolute value and the second translates this number 1️⃣ into BB/100,
showing the impact on your win rate. 70% confidence interval : Your actual results over
the simulated amount 1️⃣ of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first
interval shows absolute numbers and the second 1️⃣ translates those into BB/100, showing
the 70% confidence interval for your win rate.
: Your actual results over the simulated
amount 1️⃣ of hands will be within this interval 70% of the time. The first interval shows
absolute numbers and the second 1️⃣ translates those into BB/100, showing the 70%
confidence interval for your win rate. 95% confidence interval : Same as the 1️⃣ above with
95% certainty. Meaning: 19 out of 20 times your actual winnings will be within this
interval.
: Same as 1️⃣ the above with 95% certainty. Meaning: 19 out of 20 times your
actual winnings will be within this interval. Probability 1️⃣ of loss after X hands : the
probability that you will experience negative winnings (meaning: losses) over the
number of 1️⃣ hands.
: the probability that you will experience negative winnings (meaning:
losses) over the number of hands. Probability of running at 1️⃣ or above observed win rate
… : If you entered an observed win rate, this number will show you the 1️⃣ probability that
you will experience a run at or above this win rate over the number of hands.
: If you
1️⃣ entered an observed win rate, this number will show you the probability that you will
experience a run at or 1️⃣ above this win rate over the number of hands. Probability of
running below observed win rate … : Same as 1️⃣ above – the probability that you will
experience a run below the observed win rate over the number of hands.
: 1️⃣ Same as above
– the probability that you will experience a run below the observed win rate over the
number 1️⃣ of hands. Minimum bankroll for less than 5% risk of ruin: the bankroll needed to
have a risk of ruin 1️⃣ of less than 5%
Detailed sample with downswing
Variance Calculator
Downswing Samples
This chart simulates a single run over 100 thousand up to 1️⃣ 10 million
hands with the win rate and standard deviation entered above. You can choose how many
hands to simulate 1️⃣ by moving the slider.
Apart from showing a single sample, this graph
also shows some insightful information about downswings. The red 1️⃣ area shows for any
given point, how much the sample is currently away from its previous peak, meaning it
tracks 1️⃣ downswings. This chart uses two vertical axes. While the sample winnings have
their scale on the right axis, the downswing 1️⃣ tracker has its scale on the left axis. In
this example, the simulated player ended up with winnings over 25,000 1️⃣ big blinds after
2.5 million hands but had to deal with a nasty downswing of almost 10,000 big blinds
between 1️⃣ hand 1.2 million and hand 2 million.
Downswings in numbers
The last section of
the Variance Calculator sheds some more light on 1️⃣ potential downswings. Therefore 100
million hands are simulated and all downswings over this simulation are tracked. The
first table shows 1️⃣ the extent of the downswings. It shows how often the simulated player
was stuck in a downswing of at least 1️⃣ X big blinds. For example (1000+ BB – 31.77%)
means the player was in the middle of a downswing of 1️⃣ at least 1,000 big blinds 31.77
percent of the time.
The second table shows how long downswings last on average. For
1️⃣ example (50000+ Hands – 15.81%) means the simulated player was in a downswing over at
least 50,000 hands 15.81 percent 1️⃣ of the time. For the purpose of these calculations, a
downswing is defined as any period where the current total 1️⃣ winnings are below the
maximum previous total winnings. Meaning, that by this definition a downswing is not
over until the 1️⃣ player has fully recovered his losses.
In general, these simulations
underestimate the extent of downswings, but the numbers should still give 1️⃣ you a decent
idea of the vastness of downswings you should expect.
Should you have any questions,
encounter any errors or 1️⃣ have ideas for improvements, please let me know.
» Tournament
Variance Calculator
» Examples and Impacts of Variance in Cash Games
» ICM 1️⃣ Calculator
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